The La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature continues to be abnormally cold. 2021 coincides with Double La Nina, which indicates that this winter will be extremely cold. This year's automotive aftermarket is also a bit like the weather, and I am afraid it will also be baptized by La Niña. There are only a handful of investment and financing projects in the industry throughout the year. This may be the coldest environment in the industry so far.
Now that the cold winter is approaching, everyone must take some measures to keep warm.
For example, you need to wear more clothes and squeeze the cash flow in your hand; for example, you need to report to the group for warmth, and see if there are friends with complementary resources in the upstream, middle and downstream. For example, if it`s freezing cold outside, don`t go out and wander around if you have nothing to do. The business line should be properly stabilized and red flags should not be blindly planted.
Under the long and cold winter, we must not only tighten our clothes and food, but also seize the time to actively exercise and keep fit. The physical fitness of auto aftermarket enterprises is specifically reflected in the efficiency of the auto parts supply chain.
On the top of Mount Hua, draw the sword and talk about heroes. The existing auto parts supply chain can be roughly divided into the following four camps according to the model: 1. The faltering auto parts city model; 2. The vigorous supply chain platform model; 3. The mature and stable auto parts chain model; 4. The immortal factory direct sales model.
picture
Order density
Before evaluating the efficiency of the supply chain of these four models, we first introduce an indicator to evaluate the efficiency of the supply chain: order density. This indicator often appears in the new retail industry, such as Meituan, Ele.me, Hema Xiansheng, etc., which all value the order density of a single store.
Order density refers to the total number of delivery orders in the same delivery direction in a unit time. The larger the number, the better the distribution efficiency can be achieved at a lower cost. Previously, Yu Le, co-founder of Dingdong Maicai, said that order density is the key to the life and death of a business model. Of course, this refers to the new retail industry, and the auto parts industry is a little more complicated.
Obviously, among the four models, Auto Parts City has the most miscellaneous sources and the highest order density. Auto Parts City will evolve a high-frequency distribution model such as a shuttle bus based on a huge amount of supply. The shuttle bus model perfectly balances the two contradictory elements of delivery cost and delivery speed to achieve market demand balance.
The second highest order density is the factory direct sales model. The outerwear of direct sales is now popular in-depth distribution. Oil tankers are the most suitable accessory category for in-depth distribution. Many brand tires and lubricants, and even some brand battery factories, have rapidly transformed from in-depth distribution to direct sales. One of the best is Michelin. These accessories rely on their own huge sales volume to form their own system, forming a coverage of the surrounding area.
The third is the supply chain platform. At present, this type of platform can specifically refer to the tripartite platform for model parts. Because it`s a pity that other national types such as the tripartite model of wearing parts (such as Shenqi Online), the direct selling model of wearing parts (such as Beijing Zhongchi), and the whole car parts direct selling model (such as the former Baturu), basically no longer exist. On the original track.
The source of the tripartite platform is that the platform is integrated from the upstream, the source of goods is relatively concentrated, and the quantity has certain advantages. They know that terminal distribution is their weakness, and try their best to make up for it. For example, Kaisi did the Little Lion logistics, and Tuhu did Tuhu express delivery. However, because of its strong trading attributes, it is impossible to integrate the sources of other parts suppliers who are not trading on the platform, and the advancing speed is relatively slow.
The smallest order density is the auto parts chain model. Ordinary single stores generate dozens of orders a day, and the regular maintenance parts stocked by auto repair shops will be selected for scheduled delivery, usually one delivery every day. The emergency needs of auto repair shops will choose immediate delivery, such as motorcycles, freight lesbians, or self-driving. Because auto parts chain stores rely solely on their own generation of orders, the cost of distribution is the most expensive.
In summary, in comparison of order density, auto parts city>factory direct sales>supply chain platform>parts chain.
picture
The number of supply chain nodes
The second indicator introduced to evaluate the efficiency of the supply chain is the number of supply chain nodes. There will be a large number of node companies participating in the entire supply chain, such as participating manufacturers, wholesalers, parts dealers, insurance companies, and participating transporters, warehouses, movers, packers, advertising companies, etc. From the factory out of the warehouse to the end of the sales return, the fewer node companies participating in the entire chain, the more efficient the supply chain.
We still analyze the number of supply chain nodes in the four modes.
The model with the most participants and node companies is the auto parts city model. On the surface, the information exchange, capital flow and cargo transfer of various factory offices, parts dealers, distribution service providers, and warehouse service providers in Auto Parts City are all under the invisible hand of the market, and they operate very efficiently. However, there are mountains outside the mountains, and there are people outside the mountains. With the advancement of technology and the maturity of the market, the supply chain relationship has gradually evolved into a new model.
The second is the supply chain platform model. For the old and new trading platforms in the market, the conventional trading deduction points are all around 3%. If you have more platforms, you can't receive them, and you can't cover operating costs if you don't. The gross profit of maintenance parts is generally 15%-25%, and the gross profit of model parts is generally 25%-35%, which includes expenditures for logistics, warehouses, capital costs, marketing and other items. If the auto parts supply chain platform has no idea about the value of the 3% supply chain, it may not be able to tell which is the enemy and which is the friend in the market.
Once again is the auto parts chain model. They pick up factories and auto repair shops, and integrate a large number of intermediate dealers. Help factories to promote products, provide technical services, and conclude deals, withdraw funds. The number of participants in the entire supply chain node is greatly reduced.
Of course, directly-operated auto parts chains have one less transaction side than franchised auto parts chains. The previous problem with direct-operated auto parts chains was low management efficiency. The more stores there are, the more loopholes there are. Now that technology advances, the management system is gradually improved, and management efficiency is greatly improved. These technological advances have supported the rapid development of the direct-operated auto parts chain in the direction of both scale and economy.
Finally, the least number of node companies is the factory direct sales model. Factory products are sold directly to stores, which has always been regarded as the utopia of the supply chain, and it is the most efficient and ideal model. But the emergence of this final game requires two conditions:
First, technology must advance, and the supply chain is based on the development of productivity. As technology advances, new production tools will appear, which will lead to adjustments in the production relations at various nodes.
Second, there is a sequence of categories, and different categories will have a sequence when entering this stage. Generally speaking, non-technical and low-service accessories will be sold earlier. Ximei products are earlier than oil and electric ships, earlier than wearing parts, earlier than special parts, and earlier than model parts.
In summary, in terms of the number of nodes, factory direct sales
picture
Who can reach the top of the four major models?
The direction is wrong, the effort was in vain. As the market develops, which of the four modes will be the first to reach the top of Huashan Mountain?
Let me talk about Auto Parts City first. Due to the growth of supply chain platforms, auto parts alliances, and auto parts chains, as well as the reduction of new energy vehicle SKUs and the decline in maintenance, the cargo collection function of Auto Parts City is rapidly declining. The supply of goods in the auto parts city after the bottom of the pot is also rapidly declining.
When the order density drops to a certain level, the shuttle delivery model fed by a large number of sources will be hit, and the delivery frequency will gradually decrease. The reduction in the distribution frequency will accelerate more auto parts dealers to leave the auto parts city. Because neither a single auto parts supplier nor an auto parts alliance can centralize the supply of goods as before, there may no longer be as high-frequency shuttle buses as eight times a day in the future. Finally, the "auto parts city + shuttle delivery" model will be replaced by the "alliance + own delivery" or "platform + integrated delivery" model.
Therefore, the first to be eliminated may be the auto parts city model with decreasing order density and more node companies. However, the author mentioned in the previous article that China has a vast territory, a large gap between east and west, north and south, and economic development at different levels. The pattern of the decline of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may still be in the ascendant in the Mainland. In addition, the auto parts city may not necessarily die out, and the auto parts city in the first-tier cities may accelerate to evolve into an auto repair city in the future.
The second is an auto parts supply chain platform that is not dominant in order density and participating nodes (here specifically refers to the tripartite platform for model parts). For Chetongyun in 2020 and Good Auto Parts in 2021, there are fewer and fewer supply chain platform companies fighting on the national battlefield. The supply chain platform seems to have everything but nothing. The supply chain platform needs to reduce the number of nodes in its supply chain system, and it must start from the capital level with the local auto parts alliance, deeply bind it, and merge into a transaction body. Instead of simply setting up operation centers in East China and South China.
The third is auto parts chain. The problem that auto parts chains are facing now is that there are not enough counties in China. In the mainstream of several national auto parts chains, regardless of the quality of the stores, the number of 3,000 has basically reached its peak. This number is precisely the number of county-level administrative regions in China. Now that the number has reached its peak, the growth of single-store sales has become a top priority. Single store sales are actually the order density mentioned earlier.
At present, in addition to Kangzhong, the general choice for wearing parts auto parts chains is to expand into model parts, or to form a more sticky franchise relationship with local auto repair shops. This topic is a bit big, here is a few words.
For car model parts, the vulnerable parts auto parts chain in big cities can't do the model parts auto parts alliance, and there is no stocking scale in small cities. Therefore, it is very important in which cities and which categories are the vulnerable parts auto parts chain to do.
Compared to car model parts, franchising auto repair may be a better choice. Auto parts chains can rely on the resources of themselves and upstream factories to help auto repair shops attract and retain customers, turn car owners into private traffic of the Auto Parts Auto Repair Alliance, and form traffic depressions in some areas. Because single auto parts chain stores have less monopoly in larger cities, this style of play is more suitable for big cities.
Then, the future road of auto parts chains is relatively clear: small cities selectively make car models, and big cities turn car owners into private domain traffic for joining auto repair stores.
Fourth, the so-called distributors of flowing water are factories of iron hitting. Regardless of the east, west, north and south winds, I stayed still. From a trend point of view, there are more and more factories sinking to auto repair shops and even to car owners. Not only parts factories are sinking, but OEMs are sinking too.
New energy OEMs are even more serious. Their operation is from the owner side; their products are naturally digitized, and their cars can be diagnosed online. The most famous is the home repair model of Weilai Auto, and Tesla's direct sales after-sales model.
The Red Sea seen by the four models of the traditional automotive supply chain is just a puddle for parts and OEMs. There is a sentence in "Three Body": The sea has dried up, and the fish that dried the sea are not there. The factory is the fish that dries the water, but they themselves are not in the Red Sea.
So, what to do with you to destroy you. The time left for traditional supply chain companies may not be much.
